← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carmine Russo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 45% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 28% | 29% | 3.45 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.62 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Sampdoria |
| 25' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Rodríguez · ACF Fiorentina |
| 60' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Rodríguez · ACF Fiorentina |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dennis Praet · Sampdoria |
| 71' | ⚽ | Ricardo Álvarez · Sampdoria |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ricardo Álvarez · Sampdoria |
| 89' | ⚽ | Khouma Babacar · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 282.00 | 1773.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1689.31 | 1773.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.59 | 12.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| league points | 44.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.39 | 28.56 |
| state index | 0.89 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |