← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 78% | 82% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 6.79 | fair |
| Palermo win | 7% | 8% | 13.59 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Palermo |
| 6' | ⚽ | Suso · AC Milan |
| 19' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · AC Milan |
| 20' | 🟨 | Mario Pašalić · AC Milan |
| 22' | 🟨 | Giancarlo González · Palermo |
| 37' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · AC Milan |
| 70' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · AC Milan |
| 75' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Palermo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Giancarlo González · Palermo |
| 83' | 🟥 | Giancarlo González · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days |
| 312.00 |
| 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1646.10 | 1366.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.30 | -32.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.20 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.57 |
| league points | 54.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.03 | — |
| state index | 0.73 | -1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |