← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 41% | 36% | 2.38 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 30% | 44% | 3.23 | value: +43% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Bastos · SS Lazio |
| 25' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 51' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 54' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Allan · SSC Napoli |
| 85' | 🟨 | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 86' | 🟨 | Elseid Hysaj · SSC Napoli |
| 89' | 🟨 | Patric · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 373.00 | 678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 4.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1677.49 | 1775.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.10 | -2.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | — |
| league points | 60.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | 1.07 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |