← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 67% | 69% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 4.89 | fair |
| Crotone win | 13% | 16% | 7.35 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Diego Falcinelli · Crotone |
| 22' | ⚽ | Diego Falcinelli · Crotone |
| 46' | 🟨 | Bruno Martella · Crotone |
| 46' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Palacio · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 47' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Crotone |
| 51' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 65' | ⚽ | Danilo D'Ambrosio · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 89' | 🟨 | Boadu Maxwell Acosty · Crotone |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leonardo Capezzi · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 282.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 10.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1510.77 | 1782.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.39 | 2.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 2.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 17.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.08 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.13 | 28.46 |
| state index | -0.27 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.24 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |