← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 67% | 59% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 27% | 5.03 | value: +34% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 13% | 14% | 7.45 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Federico Fazio · AS Roma |
| 38' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Manolas · AS Roma |
| 41' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · AS Roma |
| 69' | 🟨 | Domenico Maietta · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · AS Roma |
| 75' | 🟨 | Blerim Džemaili · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 75' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 85' | 🟨 | Bruno Petković · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 556.00 | 464.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1618.63 | 1910.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.37 | -1.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 34.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 26.98 |
| state index | 0.24 | 1.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |