← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 80% | 85% | 1.22 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 6.77 | fair |
| Chievo win | 5% | 5% | 19.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
| 23' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Nicolás Spolli · Chievo |
| 79' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1012.00 | 920.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 2010.97 | 1630.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.80 | -23.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | — |
| league points | 74.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.47 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 30.56 | 31.28 |
| state index | 1.70 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |