← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 49% | 52% | 1.99 | value: +4% |
| Pescara win | 26% | 24% | 3.84 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Hugo Campagnaro · Pescara |
| 9' | ⚽ | Omar El Kaddouri · Empoli |
| 10' | 🟨 | Cesare Bovo · Pescara |
| 26' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 31' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
| 38' | 🟨 | Marcel Büchel · Empoli |
| 54' | 🟨 | Sulley Muntari · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 281.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1420.00 | 1305.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.72 | -16.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -1.37 | -1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |