← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Ghersini, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 54% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 20% | 22% | 4.88 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Luca Rossettini · Torino FC |
| 9' | 🟨 | Sven Kums · Udinese Calcio |
| 49' | ⚽ | Jakub Jankto · Udinese Calcio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Gabriele Angella · Udinese Calcio |
| 68' | ⚽ | Stipe Perica · Udinese Calcio |
| 70' | ⚽ | Emiliano Moretti · Torino FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jakub Jankto · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.62 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 275.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1691.75 | 1638.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.92 | 12.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 40.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.20 | 25.54 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |