← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 62% | 74% | 1.58 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 21% | 14% | 4.60 | fair |
| Pescara win | 17% | 12% | 5.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Gabriel Paletta · Pescara |
| 25' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · Pescara |
| 41' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · AC Milan |
| 52' | 🟨 | Cesare Bovo · Pescara |
| 58' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paletta · AC Milan |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mamadou Coulibaly · Pescara |
| 63' | 🟨 | José Sosa · AC Milan |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ledian Memushaj · Pescara |
| 78' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · AC Milan |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alessandro Bruno · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 26 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 26 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| coach days |
| 60.00 |
| 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1298.87 | 1652.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.63 | 28.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.82 |
| league points | 12.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.41 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.17 |
| state index | -1.04 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |