← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 36% | 48% | 2.70 | value: +30% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 33% | 25% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Alessandro Gazzi · Palermo |
| 16' | 🟨 | Mauricio Isla · Cagliari Calcio |
| 26' | ⚽ | Giancarlo González · Palermo |
| 48' | ⚽ | Artur Ioniță · Cagliari Calcio |
| 58' | ⚽ | Marco Borriello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Bruno Henrique · Palermo |
| 89' | ⚽ | Artur Ioniță · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Trajkovski · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Renzo Barbera |
| coach days |
| 1.00 |
| 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1380.84 | 1463.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.67 | 1.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| league points | 15.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.29 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |