← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 35% | 42% | 2.80 | value: +17% |
| Juventus FC win | 35% | 28% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Sami Khedira · Juventus FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 60' | ⚽ | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 671.00 | 1006.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.76 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1773.96 | 1888.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.23 | 2.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | 1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| league points | 63.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 2.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.85 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.05 | 1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |