← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 64% | 59% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 28% | 4.64 | value: +28% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 14% | 13% | 6.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Mattia Destro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 51' | ⚽ | Khouma Babacar · ACF Fiorentina |
| 59' | 🟨 | Milan Badelj · ACF Fiorentina |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 78' | 🟨 | Davide Astori · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ladislav Krejcí · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days |
| 1766.00 |
| 549.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.79 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1654.65 | 1497.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.90 | 15.53 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| league points | 48.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.57 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |