← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 55% | 62% | 1.79 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.07 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 21% | 16% | 4.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 26' | 🟨 | Thomas Strakosha · SS Lazio |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 32' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 33' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · SS Lazio |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 83' | ⚽ (og) | Andrea Consigli · SS Lazio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pol Lirola · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1127.00 | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1620.35 | 1796.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.96 | 25.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 31.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.94 | 27.27 |
| state index | -0.19 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |