← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 81% | 83% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.48 | fair |
| Empoli win | 6% | 3% | 17.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 43' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 56' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 456.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1908.28 | 1547.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.57 | -39.14 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 65.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.05 | 27.66 |
| state index | 1.20 | -1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |