← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 66% | 63% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.59 | value: +4% |
| Sampdoria win | 13% | 14% | 7.67 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Vasco Regini · Sampdoria |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dani Alves · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 261.00 | 992.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1677.96 | 2009.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.56 | 2.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| league points | 41.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | 1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 29.61 |
| state index | 0.96 | 1.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |