← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 75% | 77% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 6.34 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 9% | 9% | 10.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 16' | ⚽ | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 37' | 🟨 | Timo Letschert · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · AS Roma |
| 68' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Federico Peluso · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 443.00 |
| 1114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1793.52 | 1507.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.72 | -30.66 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| league points | 62.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.31 | — |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |