← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 71% | 77% | 1.38 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 19% | 12% | 5.07 | fair |
| Empoli win | 10% | 11% | 10.21 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Andrea Costa · Empoli |
| 19' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 24' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jorginho · SSC Napoli |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 64' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
| 69' | 🟨 | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 70' | ⚽ | Omar El Kaddouri · Empoli |
| 75' | 🟨 | José Mauri · Empoli |
| 79' | 🟨 | Elseid Hysaj · SSC Napoli |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Massimo Maccarone · Empoli |
| 83' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 25 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days |
| 261.00 |
| 657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 4.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1425.51 | 1770.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.77 | 5.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 22.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | 1.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | -1.30 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |