← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 62% | 64% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.51 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 16% | 15% | 6.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Paolo Faragò · Cagliari Calcio |
| 70' | 🟨 | Lucas Biglia · SS Lazio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mauricio Isla · Cagliari Calcio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Stefan de Vrij · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Sant'Elia |
| coach days | 657.00 | 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1459.33 | 1674.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.05 | 27.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 31.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.60 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |