← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 76% | 78% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.46 | value: +8% |
| Pescara win | 9% | 5% | 11.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Sulley Muntari · Pescara |
| 62' | 🟨 | Andrea Masiello · Atalanta BC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Valerio Verre · Pescara |
| 69' | ⚽ | Alberto Grassi · Atalanta BC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Hans Hateboer · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days | 291.00 | 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1626.52 | 1302.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.12 | 4.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| league points | 52.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.54 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |