← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carmine Russo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 61% | 53% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.15 | value: +3% |
| Genoa CFC win | 16% | 22% | 6.31 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Matías Fernández · AC Milan |
| 36' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · Genoa CFC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mattia De Sciglio · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santiago Gentiletti · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 290.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 4.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1648.67 | 1484.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.07 | -28.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 46.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.65 |
| league points | 50.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.17 | — |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |