← Serie A 2016-17 · Mon, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 64% | 70% | 1.53 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.65 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 15% | 12% | 6.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Adem Ljajić · Torino FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jordan Lukaku · SS Lazio |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 72' | ⚽ | Maxi López · Torino FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
| 87' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 346.00 | 255.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1791.79 | 1699.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.54 | 8.40 |
| eye test v1 | 1.42 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| league points | 53.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 26.20 |
| state index | 1.40 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |