← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Celi Domenico, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 41% | 43% | 2.39 | value: +4% |
| Pescara win | 32% | 31% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Gabriele Angella · Udinese Calcio |
| 20' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Udinese Calcio |
| 35' | 🟨 | Emil Hallfreðsson · Udinese Calcio |
| 39' | 🟨 | Alessandro Bruno · Pescara |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jakub Jankto · Udinese Calcio |
| 52' | 🟨 | Cesare Bovo · Pescara |
| 55' | ⚽ | Cyril Théréau · Udinese Calcio |
| 83' | ⚽ | Sulley Muntari · Pescara |
| 85' | 🟨 | Gabriel Silva · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| coach days | 39.00 | 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1312.30 | 1493.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.74 | -13.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| league points | 12.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.93 |
| state index | -1.02 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |