← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 70% | 75% | 1.40 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.30 | fair |
| Palermo win | 12% | 11% | 8.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Bruno Peres · AS Roma |
| 18' | 🟨 | Bruno Henrique · Palermo |
| 22' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 54' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 60' | 🟨 | Clément Grenier · AS Roma |
| 67' | 🟨 | Alessandro Gazzi · Palermo |
| 76' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bruno Peres · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 101.00 | 436.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1394.91 | 1782.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.63 | -29.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 70.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| league points | 15.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.31 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |