← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 84% | 79% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 11% | 8.36 | fair |
| Crotone win | 4% | 10% | 22.41 | value: +114% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Marko Rog · SSC Napoli |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bruno Martella · Crotone |
| 54' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Crisetig · Crotone |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 70' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 87' | 🟨 | Gian Marco Ferrari · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days |
| 650.00 |
| 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.57 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1767.86 | 1406.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.42 | -19.44 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 57.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 0.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.28 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.19 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -1.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |