← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 70% | 68% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.06 | value: +8% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 11% | 11% | 8.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 61' | 🟨 | Davide Astori · ACF Fiorentina |
| 77' | 🟨 | Senna Miangue · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nikola Kalinić · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1745.00 | 650.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1645.56 | 1463.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.82 | -9.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.46 |
| league points | 42.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |