← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 47% | 45% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.24 | fair |
| Empoli win | 23% | 27% | 4.27 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 40' | ⚽ | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
| 55' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
| 75' | ⚽ | Valter Birsa · Chievo |
| 89' | ⚽ | Boštjan Cesar · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 893.00 | 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1652.71 | 1562.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.91 | -29.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 35.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 32.09 | 28.33 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |