← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 36% | 40% | 2.70 | value: +7% |
| Sampdoria win | 33% | 31% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Isaac Cofie · Genoa CFC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jacopo Sala · Sampdoria |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mauricio Pinilla · Genoa CFC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Olivier Ntcham · Genoa CFC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Édgar Barreto · Sampdoria |
| 71' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Sampdoria |
| 72' | 🟨 | Luis Muriel · Sampdoria |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nicolás Burdisso · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emiliano Viviano · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 38.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.79 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1620.06 | 1667.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.29 | 25.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.50 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 29.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 26.87 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |