← Serie A 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 67% | 65% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.59 | value: +8% |
| AC Milan win | 11% | 12% | 8.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Mario Pašalić · AC Milan |
| 30' | ⚽ | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Gerard Deulofeu · AC Milan |
| 43' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · AC Milan |
| 57' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · AC Milan |
| 61' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 78' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sami Khedira · Juventus FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | José Sosa · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Sosa · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟥 | José Sosa · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 983.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1882.12 | 1651.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.73 | 37.73 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| league points | 67.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.13 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.17 |
| state index | 1.62 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |