← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicola Rizzoli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 65% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.55 | fair |
| Palermo win | 13% | 17% | 7.55 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Norbert Balogh · Palermo |
| 30' | ⚽ | Andrea Rispoli · Palermo |
| 33' | 🟨 | Andrea Rispoli · Palermo |
| 56' | 🟨 | Roland Sallai · Palermo |
| 73' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 76' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Norbert Balogh · Palermo |
| 78' | 🟥 | Norbert Balogh · Palermo |
| 81' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 247.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1567.44 | 1401.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.78 | 9.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| league points | 36.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |