← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 34% | 41% | 2.86 | value: +19% |
| Empoli win | 34% | 32% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
| 63' | 🟨 | Massimo Maccarone · Empoli |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mauricio Pinilla · Genoa CFC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
| 89' | ⚽ | Olivier Ntcham · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Oscar Hiljemark · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 23 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 247.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 4.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1453.06 | 1478.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.89 | -40.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 40.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| league points | 22.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.96 | -1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |