← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 58% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.40 | value: +23% |
| Pescara win | 19% | 17% | 5.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Sampdoria |
| 32' | ⚽ | Alberto Cerri · Pescara |
| 48' | 🟨 | Andrea Coda · Pescara |
| 58' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 68' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Sampdoria |
| 87' | 🟨 | Alessandro Bruno · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 246.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1536.70 | 1317.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.27 | 9.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| league points | 35.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.38 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |