← Serie A 2016-17 · Mon, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 52% | 59% | 1.88 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.81 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 22% | 20% | 4.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Riccardo Saponara · ACF Fiorentina |
| 27' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Marco Benassi · Torino FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Nikola Kalinić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 42' | 🟨 | Riccardo Saponara · ACF Fiorentina |
| 65' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 1732.00 | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1647.75 | 1563.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.68 | -19.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 40.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |