β Serie A 2016-17 Β· Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 39% | 39% | 2.51 | fair |
| Palermo win | 32% | 30% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | π¨ | Luca Cigarini Β· Sampdoria |
| 19' | π¨ | Alessandro Gazzi Β· Palermo |
| 31' | β½ (pen) | Ilija Nestorovski Β· Palermo |
| 46' | π¨ | Filip ΔuriΔiΔ Β· Sampdoria |
| 53' | π¨ | Bruno Henrique Β· Palermo |
| 90' | β½ | Fabio Quagliarella Β· Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 87.00 | 240.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1399.06 | 1538.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.89 | 31.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| league points | 14.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | β | 22.98 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |