← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 50% | 52% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.81 | value: +14% |
| Pescara win | 24% | 18% | 4.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Valter Birsa · Chievo |
| 23' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ledian Memushaj · Pescara |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nicolás Spolli · Chievo |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jonathan de Guzmán · Chievo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Alberto Cerri · Pescara |
| 56' | 🟨 | Andrea Coda · Pescara |
| 61' | ⚽ | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.58 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 879.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1531.03 | 1322.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.69 | 11.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.53 |
| league points | 32.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 0.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.15 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |