← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 83% | 88% | 1.18 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 13% | 9% | 7.65 | fair |
| Empoli win | 4% | 3% | 22.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | ⚽ (og) | Łukasz Skorupski · Juventus FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 970.00 | 239.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1888.04 | 1454.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.88 | -20.12 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 47.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| league points | 63.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.72 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.20 |
| state index | 1.76 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |