← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 72% | 74% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.60 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 11% | 10% | 8.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 17' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · AS Roma |
| 55' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Marco Benassi · Torino FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 84' | ⚽ | Maxi López · Torino FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 415.00 | 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1923.93 | 1694.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.10 | -12.80 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.30 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.63 |
| league points | 53.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.31 | — |
| state index | 1.78 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |