← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eugenio Abbattista, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 42% | 57% | 2.34 | value: +33% |
| Pescara win | 32% | 22% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (og) | Lucas Orbán · Pescara |
| 9' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 11' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · Pescara |
| 19' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
| 31' | ⚽ | Ahmad Benali · Pescara |
| 49' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
| 81' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
| 87' | ⚽ | Alberto Cerri · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| coach days | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1294.24 | 1508.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.73 | -33.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 41.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| league points | 9.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -2.25 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |