← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 45% | 43% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 26% | 28% | 3.71 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Juraj Kucka · AC Milan |
| 20' | ⚽ | Nikola Kalinić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 31' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · AC Milan |
| 44' | 🟨 | Carlos Salcedo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Leonel Vangioni · AC Milan |
| 51' | 🟨 | Gustavo Gómez · AC Milan |
| 51' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · ACF Fiorentina |
| 74' | 🟨 | Suso · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 263.00 | 1724.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1624.99 | 1678.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.85 | 5.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| league points | 41.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.17 | — |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |