← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicola Rizzoli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 58% | 65% | 1.70 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 25% | 16% | 4.00 | fair |
| Empoli win | 18% | 19% | 5.49 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Andrea Costa · Empoli |
| 60' | 🟨 | Lucas Biglia · SS Lazio |
| 67' | ⚽ | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 68' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 80' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 84' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frédéric Veseli · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 232.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1461.30 | 1644.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.79 | -9.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 1.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.80 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| league points | 22.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.00 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |