← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 78% | 82% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.41 | fair |
| Crotone win | 6% | 6% | 15.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Aleandro Rosi · Crotone |
| 45' | 🟨 | Claiton · Crotone |
| 48' | ⚽ | Andrea Conti · Atalanta BC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Gian Marco Ferrari · Crotone |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Crisetig · Crotone |
| 69' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Crotone |
| 78' | 🟨 | Andrea Conti · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days | 262.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.79 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1617.71 | 1419.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.86 | 5.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| league points | 45.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | -2.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -1.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |