← Serie A 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 85% | 87% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 10% | 8.33 | fair |
| Palermo win | 3% | 3% | 28.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Palermo |
| 13' | ⚽ | Claudio Marchisio · Juventus FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Claudio Marchisio · Juventus FC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ivaylo Chochev · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 962.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1886.59 | 1400.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.79 | -6.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| league points | 60.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.76 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 1.72 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.17 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |