← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 68% | 73% | 1.45 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.88 | fair |
| Pescara win | 12% | 9% | 7.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 3' | 🟨 | Guglielmo Stendardo · Pescara |
| 9' | ⚽ | Arlind Ajeti · Torino FC |
| 15' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Michele Fornasier · Pescara |
| 32' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Adem Ljajić · Torino FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 73' | ⚽ (og) | Arlind Ajeti · Pescara |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ahmad Benali · Pescara |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ahmad Benali · Pescara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrea Coda · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 226.00 | 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1564.76 | 1298.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.16 | -23.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| league points | 32.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.17 | -2.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |