← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 55% | 58% | 1.79 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.74 | fair |
| Palermo win | 19% | 17% | 5.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Andrea Rispoli · Palermo |
| 19' | ⚽ | Andrea Conti · Atalanta BC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Giancarlo González · Palermo |
| 26' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ivaylo Chochev · Palermo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Palermo |
| 78' | ⚽ | Bryan Cristante · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 73.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1409.83 | 1608.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.98 | 26.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| league points | 14.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |