← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carmine Russo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 72% | 70% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.16 | fair |
| Crotone win | 9% | 15% | 10.36 | value: +54% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · AS Roma |
| 77' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| coach days | 226.00 | 408.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 0.80 |
| 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1423.60 | 1794.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.32 | 5.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 71.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| league points | 13.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.90 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.50 |
| state index | -0.41 | 1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.69 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |