← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 54% | 61% | 1.80 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.74 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 19% | 18% | 5.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 38' | 🟨 | Emil Hallfreðsson · Udinese Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Borja Valero · ACF Fiorentina |
| 62' | ⚽ | Khouma Babacar · ACF Fiorentina |
| 79' | 🟨 | Seko Fofana · Udinese Calcio |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Federico Bernardeschi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 83' | 🟨 | Hrvoje Milić · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1716.00 | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1660.37 | 1509.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.81 | -7.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| league points | 37.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.38 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.93 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |