← Serie A 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 77% | 81% | 1.28 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.43 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 8% | 8% | 12.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lucas Orbán · Genoa CFC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Emanuele Giaccherini · SSC Napoli |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nicolás Burdisso · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marko Rog · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 620.00 | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.47 | 4.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1765.47 | 1512.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.07 | -34.69 |
| eye test v1 | 1.91 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 44.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 48.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.92 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.33 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |