← Serie A 2016-17 · Tue, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 60% | 57% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.01 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 16% | 23% | 6.29 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · AS Roma |
| 35' | 🟨 | Carlos Sánchez · ACF Fiorentina |
| 39' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 41' | 🟨 | Borja Valero · ACF Fiorentina |
| 56' | 🟨 | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
| 57' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Rodríguez · ACF Fiorentina |
| 58' | ⚽ | Federico Fazio · AS Roma |
| 75' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · AS Roma |
| 83' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 403.00 | 1712.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1784.62 | 1670.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.22 | 27.24 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.40 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.53 |
| league points | 47.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 24.50 | — |
| state index | 1.23 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |