← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 41% | 37% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.26 | value: +8% |
| Crotone win | 29% | 30% | 3.42 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Palermo |
| 27' | ⚽ | Ilija Nestorovski · Palermo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Andrea Rispoli · Palermo |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Crisetig · Crotone |
| 69' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Crisetig · Crotone |
| 69' | 🟥 | Lorenzo Crisetig · Crotone |
| 71' | 🟨 | Andrea Barberis · Crotone |
| 76' | 🟨 | Adrian Stoian · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 25 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 66.00 | 219.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1400.54 | 1435.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.59 | -0.51 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | -1.07 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |