← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carmine Russo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 45% | 46% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 27% | 25% | 3.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 33' | 🟨 | Alberto Aquilani · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 48' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · Genoa CFC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 4.00 | 1072.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.53 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1524.47 | 1526.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.78 | 3.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 25.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |