← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 45% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +6% |
| Empoli win | 28% | 29% | 3.52 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Mirko Valdifiori · Torino FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 42' | 🟨 | Omar El Kaddouri · Empoli |
| 43' | 🟨 | Levan Mch'edlidze · Empoli |
| 45' | ⚽ | Manuel Pucciarelli · Empoli |
| 50' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
| 55' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
| 80' | 🟨 | Juan Iturbe · Torino FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Joel Obi · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Federico Dimarco · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 23 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 219.00 | 219.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1466.14 | 1565.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.61 | -9.28 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 21.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |